NOAA releases Atlantic hurricane season forecast and tropical cyclone names

On Tuesday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced its predictions for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA Climate Prediction Center forecasters are calling for an “above-average” hurricane season, according to the release, potentially the seventh consecutive above-average Atlantic hurricane season.

The agency’s 2022 Atlantic hurricane season outlook for June 1 through the end of November forecasted a “65% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season,” the releases states.

In the upcoming season, the agency predicted a “likely range” of between 14 and 21 named storms, a designation given to systems with 39 mph winds or higher, according to the release, with six to 10 of these storms potentially becoming hurricanes. This includes three to six major hurricanes rated at category three, four or five, with the agency stating that it provided these “ranges with a 70% confidence.”

“Early preparation and understanding your risk is key to being hurricane resilient and climate-ready,” said Secretary of Commerce Gina M. Raimondo in the release. “Throughout the hurricane season, NOAA experts will work around-the-clock to provide early and accurate forecasts and warnings that communities in the path of storms can depend on to stay informed.”

The anticipated above-average hurricane is attributed to a number of factors, such as the ongoing La Niña, above-average Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperatures, “weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds and an enhanced west African monsoon,” the report states, noting that the latter supports “stronger African Easterly Waves, which seed many of the strongest and longest lived hurricanes during most seasons.”

2022 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone names

The report also lists the 2022 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone names in alphabetical order. This includes Alex, Bonnie, Colin, Danielle, Earl, Fiona, Gaston, Hermine, Ian, Julia, Karl, Lisa, Martin, Nicole, Owen, Paula, Richard, Shary, Tobias, Virginie and Walter.

NOAA notes that the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season forecast is focused on overall seasonal activity and is not intended to be a landfall forecast.

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